|Limits to growth - the Standard
Run and Double Resource predictions
by Dave Kimble at http://www.peakoil.org.au/index.htm
Note that scenarios in the book all have the timeframe of 1900 - 2100.
The authors do not claim that their predictions are accurate, but say they are indicative only.
In the Standard Run :
Food per capita peaks in 2008.
Industrial Output per capita peaks in 2010.
Pollution peaks in 2031.
Population peaks in 2050.
So to say the book "got it all wrong" is to jump the gun somewhat,
as the first prediction isn't due for another 2 years yet,
and won't clearly have happened until another 5 years after that at least.
Note also the point of inflection in the Resources curve.
This is the steepest point on the curve, and corresponds with the time of maximum resource extraction.
Although this refers to a fictitious thing called "all resources",
if it was oil, it would put Peak Oil at 2010
which is as good an estimate as any, looking at it from 2006.
ASPO have said the peak of light, sweet crude was in 2005,
and the peak of all liquids will be in 2010.
The assumptions made in priming the model with numbers include the size of various resource categories.
With the benefit of hindsight it can be seen that some of these figures have turned out to be too low. But anticipating this, the model was run with all resource allocations doubled :
In the Double Resources run :
Food per capita peaks in 2015.
Industrial Output per capita peaks in 2028.
Population peaks in 2041, and pollution increases without limit.
The peak of resource extraction rate occurs in 2030,
so doubling resources has only delayed the inevitable by 20 years.
My interpretation of this is that this is the runaway Greenhouse scenario.
( For more on Greenhouse, see www.peakoil.org.au/greenhouse.htm )
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